The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Executive Board has concluded its 2025 Article IV Consultation assessing that the UK economy is recovering, with modest growth expected this year and stronger momentum building into 2026. But global uncertainty, cautious consumers, and inflation pressures could still slow things down.
The IMF forecasts growth of 1.2% in 2025, rising to 1.4% in 2026. Business investment is picking up, and public spending from the last budget is helping support the recovery.
Inflation still a concern - but expected to ease
While inflation is expected to average 3.2% this year, the IMF estimates that it should fall back to 2.3 percent next year.
Government finances: on the right track, if plans hold
The IMF says the government’s current spending and borrowing plans are about right - encouraging growth while keeping debt in check. But it stressed the importance of sticking to the deficit reduction plan over the next five years.
Interest rates: gradual cuts make sense
With inflation still above target and the outlook uncertain, the IMF supports the Bank of England’s cautious approach to cutting interest rates.
Overall, the message is cautiously upbeat. Growth is returning, and the right policies are largely in place. But the IMF says it’s vital to prioritise long-term reforms - especially around skills, planning, and economic stability - and avoid frequent policy changes.
The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) has published proposals to overhaul how the veterinary market works. While this review focuses on vet businesses, its findings provide some useful insights for businesses of all types - particularly around transparency, communication, and customer confidence.
Running your own business often means juggling a lot - and for many, that includes childcare. With autumn school breaks rapidly approaching, HMRC is reminding working families that the Tax-Free Childcare scheme can be a good way to make some savings.